PDF The Next Great War?
- The Next Great War?
- Richard N. Rosecrance
- 05 May 2018
Richard N. Rosecrance Ò 0 FREE READ
FREE READ Ù The Next Great War? Richard N. Rosecrance Ò 0 FREE READ FREE DOWNLOAD The Next Great War? 14 Are China and the United States fated to follow in the footsteps of previous great power rivals Will today's alliances drag countries into tomorrow's wars Can leaders manage power relationships peacefully Or will East Asia's territorial and maritime disputes trigger a larger conflict just as rivalries in the Balkans did in 1914In The Next Great War experts reconsider the causes of World War I and explore whether the great powers of the twenty first century can avoid the mistakes of Europe's statesmen in 1914 and preve. This is a collection of essays written by historians and policy experts at the centennial anniversary of World War I Each essay talks about the causes of WWI and the modern parallels to the Pacific the China sea and surrounding countriesWhy I started this book Another Professional Reading title and another audio book Win winWhy I finished it Listened to the whole thing in practically one sitting as I made Christmas cards and cleaned my apartment This book was the practical application of history and I loved it even if Trump s election has blown the short term predictions out of the water In the analogy of one of the essays the underlining issues and resource scramble is the wood the build up of Chinese man made islands is the paper and kindling and at any moment Trump could walk by with a match and set the whole thing ablazeREVIEW ¶ PDF, DOC, TXT or eBook Ò Richard N. Rosecrance
FREE READ Ù The Next Great War? Richard N. Rosecrance Ò 0 FREE READ FREE DOWNLOAD The Next Great War? Experts consider how the lessons of World War I can help prevent US China conflictA century ago Europe's diplomats mismanaged the crisis triggered by the murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and the continent plunged into World War I which killed millions toppled dynasties and destroyed empires Today as the hundredth anniversary of the Great War prompts renewed debate about the war's causes scholars and policy experts are also considering the parallels between the present international system and the world of 19. This book was published as a collection of works by various contributors mostly from Harvard but there are others for example a former Australian Prime Minister The book was published in 2014 on WWI centenary and it focuses on the social political and economic causes of WWI with some analogies to a possible US China military conflict While WWI centenary is a good time to raise concerns of possible future world war there is a little commonality between the situation that preceded WWI and the present state WWI was caused by hypernationalism coupled with militarism that was rampant in Europe of that time The militaries of Europe were unconstrained back then and had a primary say in their countries foreign policies And they all wanted war It was hard to find a single European military of that time that didn t want to wage the wars of expansionBoth American and Chinese militaries are under civilian control today Moreover the American military has often cautioned restraint in foreign policy While nationalism is strong in China it is controlled and used by the Chinese communist party not the other way around Chinese government deploys nationalism strategically making sure it doesn t impact internationalization which China needs to fuel its growthTalking about the possible US China military conflict one shouldn t focus on WWI There is another war that is highly relevant today The Peloponnesian War fought in Ancient Greece between Athens and Sparta The Peloponnesian War serves as a template for the context in which an existing power Sparta begun to fear the growing new power Athens and that fear made the war inevitable The ancient Greek historian and general Thucydides who fought in that war wrote the history of the Peloponnesin War He teaches us that the mere idea of the inevitability of war will be the main cause of the war Both growing power Athens and the existing power Sparta thought that the war was inevitable and the concept of war inevitability had guided their foreign policies The situation where the existing power fears the growth of the new power which could lead to a war is today known as Thucydides Trap 75% of historical cases of Thucydides Trap ended up in a warIf you believe that the military conflict between China and USA is inevitable then you understand the theory Just the idea of inevitability will make China and USA align their foreign policies and militaries to a future inevitable conflict and by doing so they would help create the situation that will start the conflict All is needed is for some smaller ally of either side to spark the fire Small allies are dangerous They can t help the superpower in the war but they can drag superpower into the war The Peloponnesian War started that wayThere is one issue similar to WWI though the uest for territorial expansion Asia is full of contested borders and territorial claims The Chinese Nine Dash Line in the South China Sea is one example that could easily lead to a conflict with some of the Southeast Asian countries and drag the United States into war The war always starts when there is a balance of power In a situation where both sides have similar capabilities the possibility of war is much higher than when there is overbalance of power The position of overbalance where one power and its allies are much stronger than another power will not lead to war as the weaker side will not risk it History teaches us that it is the balance of power that we should be afraid of I think that it is the South China Sea where the military conflict will start However the maritime conflicts rarely expand to total war Usually one side gets a bloody nose and retreats The possibility of military conflict between the USA and China is high at 75% as calculated by Allison Graham of Harvard Kennedy School and in my opinion the military conflict will happen The former commander of the US Army in Europe Lt Gen Ben Hodges has recently said that the United States would be at war with China in 15 years I think that the war will not grow into a total war It will be a sharp naval confrontation somewhere in the South China Sea maybe the East China Sea too It will also be fought over the control of the traditional maritime chokepoints like Malacca Straits and it will end up with one side getting a bloody nose retreating and losing its influence in the regionFrom the purely military point of view I think that America missed its chance to stop the Chinese naval build up I can recall a similar episode Germany was forced in 1918 to accept the ruling which forbade it to place its military on its territory across the River Rhine in the Rhineland However Hitler decided to remilitarize Rhineland in 1936 When his generals objected on a possibility that France would intervene Hitler told them that if France had decided to act they would have simply moved German troops back without fighting He wanted to use Rhineland as a start of his salami slicing strategy removing limits imposed on Germany after WWI one by one without risking the war And it worked French prime minister was furious and he asked the French military to do something about Rhineland However the military asked for than million troops to be mobilized as they expected that it would mean going to a total war with Germany But it was an overbalance of power situation Hitler the weaker side didn t want to risk the war If France sent just a couple of motorized battalions to Rhineland the Germans would back off retreat and rethink their military buildup strategy as they would be faced with France resolute on maintaining the overbalance of power It is the same situation in the South China Sea today I am not comparing China and Germany just the similar salami slicing strategy and historical response to it China will not risk war in the situation of power overbalance However the strategy of artificial islands in the South China Sea is a salami slicing strategy that it is too late to be opposed now I wonder if one of the US presidents once asked the Navy to do something about the artificial island building in the South China Sea at a time when the building started And maybe the Navy admirals similar to their French counterparts forgetting about their power overbalance advantage asked for a massive buildup in the region expecting it would have sparked a total war with China All that was needed was a naval blockade of the first artificial island that the Chinese Navy would not have been able to oppose at a time and the building would have stoppedCurrently the American Navy is much stronger than the Chinese Navy and that situation is likely to last for a couple of decades However China is building its military and especially naval capabilities and its goal is to achieve a full parity with the US Navy As the naval capabilities get eual the risk of military conflict will grow Once China unlocks the balance of power achievement the game will be moved to a scary levelWhat is the way to avoid the war In my opinion the maintenance of power overbalance will prevent the war It doesn t mean investing in military superiority indefinitely What is needed is the system of alliance that provides overbalance but where allies can t drag superpowers into war I think that the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP was precisely that kind of alliance It would have created an economic alliance which would have provided economic advantage over China and China would have no other way but to join TPP at some point However China would then need to comply to the rules of TPP which would mean no government protection for the state owned companies free access to Chinese market for foreign companies labor protection laws no censorship eg Facebook and Twitter like companies could operate in China etc Maintaining a military overbalance and using that time to create economic overbalance to compel China to reform itself and open up to the world would be the path to prevent the conflict Unfortunately both left and right populists in the USA were fervently opposed to TPP and did not understand its implications I am afraid that in 50 years there will be one sentence in history books that will describe TPP as a missed opportunity for peaceIn any way there is 25% of chance that there will not be a military conflict between China and the USA Not a great bet but the world has to do its best to make that 25 % happen as America and China have to find a way to peacefully grow together increasing their collective security and well being of their citizens
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FREE READ Ù The Next Great War? Richard N. Rosecrance Ò 0 FREE READ FREE DOWNLOAD The Next Great War? Nt another catastrophic conflict They find differences as well as similarities between today's world and the world of 1914 but conclude that only a deep understanding of those differences and early action to bring great powers together will likely enable the United States and China to avoid a great warContributorsAlan Alexandroff Graham Allison Richard N Cooper Charles S Maier Steven E Miller Joseph S Nye Jr T G Otte David K Richards Richard N Rosecrance Kevin Rudd Jack Snyder Etel Solingen Arthur A Stein Stephen Van Eve. A well balanced overview of how we should ensure that we draw the right lessons from WWI when thinking about USChina relations and not the easy ones Anybody interested in this book would be rewarded by exploring the research of the scholars who wrote for and are cited in this work